International trade: no respite for operators in 2019!

In March 2018, the Trump administration launched commercial hostilities by raising thebrear tariffs25% for steel and 10% for aluminium (cf.World trade: how far will American protectionism go?)…

First episode of a long saga, and highly political stance leading to a global chain reaction Mexico, Canada, Turkey and the European Union have responded by imposing retaliatory measures against United Statesand/or by lodging a complaint with the WTO.

The US President, on his own initiative, decided to provoke the China successively publishing 3 product lists « Made in China » targeted by Increases in customs duties on imports... all enhanced with angry tweets to justify his decisions and throw oil on the fire (cf. International trade: US beats trade agreement cards) !

Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, made a blow by overtaxing certain iconic American products (cf.USA / China: resumption of commercial hostilities...).

As the air became irrespirable for international traders, a three-month truce in this China-US trade war finally brought a breath of oxygen at the end of the year. (cf.International Trade: Break in the US Trade WarvsChina).

While the two main protagonists monopolized the international media scene, the measures taken in India by the Modi government, went almost unnoticed...

Continuing its programme « Make in India » In order to promote local production at the expense of imports, the Indian Prime Minister has indeed increased customs duties on many products (cf.Export India: increase in customs duties).

But in terms of protectionism,Algeria could claim the palm 2018: the Algerian government has in fact banned from January the importation of many products into its territory (cf.ALGERIA: 851 products banned on import!), and required « free marketing certificate » for those still authorised (cf. Algeria: Certificate of Compliance for Foreign Exporters).

The administrative blur around the visa of this certificate persisted for several days, giving cold sweats to French and European exporters whose goods were blocked in customs!

In the face of this surge, free trade could well have drowned... and it is certainly not the World Trade Organization (WTO), always reduced to an observer role in the race for bilateral trade agreements, who could have played rescuers (cf.Trade Facilitation Agreement: the new WTO Grail) !

However, some nations still convinced of the need to defend free trade have shown more openness: Canada, Japan orEuropean Union, concluded various agreements during the year. A good strategy to occupy the ground while Washington was stalling in risky negotiations with its border partners (cf. NAFTA: still not a major advance in negotiations).

On the side of the riverEuropean Union, 2018 was also the occasion to conclude two major trade agreements: Japan and Singapore.

At the global level, the main milestones for multilateralism were:

• LCPTPP Trans-Pacific Agreementwithout the United States
• The renegotiation of the NAFTA Agreement which became USMCA
• The conclusion and/or entry into force of several trade agreements:
  • ASEAN / Hong Kong
  • EFTA / Philippines
  • EUEA / China

Will 2019 be more lenient for importers/exporters? Nothing less secure... starting with the time bomb that is the BREXIT for Europe!