Maritime transport: overview 2026
At the beginning of 2026, it is interesting to look at the state of the world situation and the impact on maritime transport.
United States
Large American ports are about to go through a difficult period. According to the latest analyses by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, the volume of imported containers is expected to decline significantly over the year 2026. This trend, already begun at the end of 2025, is mainly due to the restrictive customs policy announced by the US administration, encouraging shippers to anticipate their supplies in order to avoid future customs duties.
Freight rates, after a slight decline in 2025, are expected to decline further in 2026, both on the East and West coasts. The demand for container transport is weakening on a sustainable basis, as a result of rising tariffs and a slowdown in world trade. Experts point out that this situation could affect port activity until the first half of 2026, or even beyond.
The actors in the sector remain cautious, while geopolitical and economic uncertainties continue to hover over international trade. The NRF calls for vigilance for the year, anticipating a year 2026 marked by a decline in volumes and increased pressure on logistics costs.
What about Venezuela?
Washington's aggressive actions against Venezuelan oil exports are causing disorder in the Caribbean and Latin American supply chains. Reinforced sanctions and blockade of tankers have led to a sharp drop in maritime traffic to the ports of Caracas, forcing shipowners to redirect their ships and to review their regional routes.
At the heart of the storm: an American blockade targeting PDVSA oil tankers (Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.), with a drastic reduction in movements towards Venezuelan waters. Insurers react by increasing war-risk premiums, while the additional costs rise on the usual Caribbean corridors. Local ports and traders suffer cascade delays, with unpredictable ship schedules.
Cuba, Curaçao and Trinidad and Tobago, which are major importers of Venezuelan crude oil, face threats to their energy supplies. The shippers are diversifying to Colombia or Guyana, but volatility is blazing logistical costs. In the long term, port investors hesitate, fearing a sustainable reconfiguration of Caribbean hubs.
The logistics players are looking at geopolitical developments, between increased risks and opportunities for narshoring. It remains to be seen whether this US pressure will revive flows or freeze regional trade.
Panama Canal
The Panama Canal maintains stable traffic in January 2026 after past droughts, with approximately 32 to 36 daily passages, compared to 38 in normal conditions, thanks to recovered rains and new reservoirs. However, global economic uncertainty weighs on the forecast, with an expected decrease in revenues of 7% for the year.
The levels of Lake Gatún are up to 24-26 metres, allowing a maximum draught of 44-50 feet (13-15 metres) depending on the vessels; restrictions were lifted at the end of 2025, but El Niño continues to threaten variable quotas in the dry season (December-April).
Approximately 13,900 ships planned for 2026 (520 Mt of goods), dominated by US containers (40% of traffic) and bulk LNG; Red Sea grazing does not directly impact, but global overcapacity slows growth (+1 to 2%).
Revenues estimated at USD 5.2 billion (compared to 5.6 billion in 2025), with queues reduced but overloaded for priorities; increasing competition from Mexican rail corridors (Coatzacoalcos-Salina Cruz) diverts 5-10% of US East Asia flows
Suez Canal
Despite a ceasefire in May 2025 and successful tests, the majority of shipowners remain cautious in the face of a volatile geopolitical context (Iran-Houthis tensions, Trump-related threats).
CMA CGM extends redirections via Cape Town for its FAL1/FAL3/MEX services, citing a « complex international context », while Maersk and others are testing escorted passages; traffic remains 50 to 70% below pre-crisis levels.
The channel relies on diversification (logistical services, industrial areas) to target USD 8 billion in revenues in 2025/2026, compared to the current USD 4.2 billion.
A massive return via Suez could cause container overcapacity (25% of global freight rates), but insurers maintain high war-risk premiums; Egypt expects a gradual recovery by 2027 if the truce holds.
Asia
International maritime trade in Asia holds steady, but is sluggish in the face of global overcapacity of containers and contrary geopolitical winds, according to the latest sectoral analyses. The region grew by 4-5% (ASEAN+3), boosted by China's record trade surplus, which pushed exports to Europe and Africa (+6%), while Singapore saw LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) jump (+36%) at the expense of bio-bunkers at a loss of speed.
China's exports grew modestly (+2% overall), driven by electronics and AI-doped semiconductors. Malaysia is close to USD 756 billion in trade (+6.5%), Indonesia is seeing its maritime GDP rise to 5.1%. But the containerized freight index stagnates around 1,458 points, increased by millions of new TEUs that cause the spot rates to plunge.
In Singapore, bio-bunkers fell by 46% in November, penalised by RED III (Directive setting a new course for renewable energy in Europe) and the postponement of the Net Zero Framework of IMO (international set of rules to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships, in line with IMO's GHG strategy 2023). LNG explodes at 631,000 tonnes (+36%), but is hampered by the shortage of barges (cost: 80 M$). Classic fuels still take 96% of the market, boosted by rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope against the Houthis.
Red Sea detours extend the Asia-Europe transit time by 10-15 days, overloading Shanghai and Ningbo. The transpacific breathless (-2.9%), with diversification towards emerging ones. Finally, experts rely on +2% annually, but geopolitical volatility (US customs fees ambush) remains the X factor.
Europe
The European port giants (Antwerp, Hamburg, Rotterdam) are under chronic congestion, the result of massive reroutings via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the crisis in the Red Sea. A timid return via Suez is coming, promising to plan for two weeks in transit times, but the shadow of the EU ETS is hovering: since 1 January, this carbon tax has fallen completely on European maritime freight.
Despite encouraging tests by Maersk and CMA CGM on Suez, 80-90% of Asian containers continue to bypass Africa, overloading the North hubs. As a result, the wait times are blown up, the volume of blanks is multiplied and the supply chains are energized, while European demand remains sluggish.
The EU Directive now incorporates 100% of EU/EEA ship emissions, with allocated quotas and a carbon market at 80-100 €CO2. For a bulk carrier of 10,000 TEUs, the bill climbs from 150,000 to 300,000 € by rotation, pushing the liners to pass over to the chargers or to green their fleet by forced march.
Good news for importers: long-term contracts to Northern Europe have fallen by 27% since early 2025, thanks to the capacity released by detours and a global overcapacity of containers. Rotterdam already records stable volumes, but Hamburg warns about shortages of skilled labour.
European ports tighten the green screw while decongesting... Or not. 2026 announces as a balancing exercise between geopolitics, ecology and fierce competition.