Experiences from previous epidemics and pandemics teach us that social disorders are occurring (or re-emerging) on average one year after a health crisis. Thisresurgence of social discontentthe socio-economic
the devastating economic consequences of these crises. The magnitude of those generated by the global VOCID-19 pandemic is unrivalled, as the magnitude of thenew wave of social movementswhich promises to be also.

During the pandemic, which is still under control at the global level, people have seen their standard of living decline: a drop in GDP per capita, a decline in purchasing power, an increase in unemployment and inflation, and an increase in income and wealth inequality (cf.CSR Risk and Covid-19: Falling World Labour Income!). In addition, in some countries there is growing dissatisfaction with the management of the health crisis by Governments and restrictions on civil and political freedoms in the context of a health crisis that is sometimes considered abusive.

Coface's study shows that the pandemic has jumped to a record level lSocial and political risk indicatorcompiles data such as inflation, unemployment, income inequality and the level of corruption. It reached 51 per cent worldwide and 55 per cent in emerging economies in 2020,an increase of 5 points compared to 2019. This indicator has increased in 88 per cent of emerging economies, notably in Asia (Malaysia, India, Thailand, Philippines), but also in some Maghreb countries (Algeria and Tunisia).

The credit insurer considers that mass social movements have persistent negative consequences for economic activity, which vary according to the duration and intensity of these movements:

• slowdown in GDP growtha percentage point and two points for emerging economies;
• decreased confidence of households and enterprises;
• increased uncertainty related to political instability;
• weakening trade flowsand fall in industrial activity affecting exports (on average 4.2% below their estimated potential over the year of the movement, and 6.3% to 8.9% below the pre-crisis situation);
• decrease in importsa decline in consumption.

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