Economic forecasts: tariff increases and brake on global growth in 2025 and 2025

According tolatest projectionsGlobal growth in 2025 and 2026 is expected to face severe turbulence due to international trade tensions. The scenario of this analysis predicts an increase in US tariffs starting in the second quarter of 2025, which would greatly affect trade with the European Union, China, Canada and Mexico, and would result in equivalent retaliation from these countries. This protectionist environment could affect theWorld GDPwith aestimated decrease of -0.1 point in 2025and-0.2 points in 2026, while theInternational Tradeof-0.2 points in 2025and-0.7 points in 2026.
Despite these tensions, global growth would remain driven by emerging economies, while advanced countries would benefit from monetary easing. In addition to the Atlantic, economic activity would continue if financial conditions remained stable, while in the European Union disparities between countries would widen. Germany would experience lower growth due to the delayed impact of its investment plan and its strong trade link with Washington, while France and Spain would show a better dynamic. Italy and the United Kingdom would occupy an intermediate position.
Major emerging economies, including China, India, Brazil and Turkey, are forecast to slow down in 2025, influenced by persistent structural imbalances. By 2026, their growth would depend heavily on monetary policy. Moreover, international trade, after two years of weak dynamism, would start a rebound, albeit limited by the tightening of trade policies.
In these forecasts, the development of international trade relations is the main factor of uncertainty. The decisions taken by the Trump administration could increase the risk of slowing down, directly influencing international trade and global growth.