US ports: NRF anticipates volume decline in 2026

Despite this context, American traders remain well supplied for the holiday season, with expected sales exceeding for the first time $1,000 billion, up 3.7% to 4.2% from 2024. However, caution dominates for 2026. Although the US administration has recently reduced certain tariffs on food products, most goods remain subject to high tariffs. An ongoing procedure before the Supreme Court does not suspend their application, and the NRF points out that even in the event of annulment, the government could restore them, fuelling uncertainty for importers.

According to Hackett Associates, the rise in tariffs has weakened world trade for a long time, leading to a decline in demand for container transport since the end of 2025. Freight rates have fallen in recent weeks, both for flows to the east coast and to the west coast of the United States. Importers reduced their space requirements for goods from Asia and Europe, a sign of an economic slowdown.

Global Port Tracker data confirm this trend: in October, volumes processed in US ports declined by 1,8 % in relation to September, 2.07 million TEUs (equivalent to 20 feet). Over a year, the fall was 7,9 %. Projections for November and December are even darker, with expected declines of 11,6 % and 12,7 % In relation to 2024, respectively.

This slowdown is partly explained by a exceptional peak of imports at the end of 2024, when threats social movements in ports and the announcement of a stricter customs policy prompted distributors to anticipate their supplies. Although the first half of 2025 saw a slight increase in traffic, the annual volume is expected to be lower than that of 2024. For 2026, forecasts remain pessimistic, with a decline over the whole year, with the exception of January.

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