Middle East: Conflict changes international traffic and oil prices

In view of the renewed tension between Iran and Israel, the airspace of many countries in the Middle East (Israel, Iran but also Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) has been closed or severely reduced, resulting in enormous disruptions in the air traffic of this region of the world with repercussions on international traffic. Flights are often cancelled, diverted or delayed: traffic between Europe, the Middle East and Asia remains heavily impacted. However, some airlines continue to operate in the area on routes away from conflict areas, with delays at the key due to the extension of some air routes or the saturation of the Gulf regional airspace. Thousands of goods were blocked or delayed at airports and hubs, as cargo fleets suspended part of their operations.

On the maritime side, Iran's closure of the Strait of Ormuz, a 50-kilometre-wide energy artery through which more than 20 per cent of the world's oil flows, has been feared for several weeks. Five of the world's ten largest black gold producers, including Saudi Arabia, pass nearly 20 million barrels per day and 70 million tons of liquefied natural gas. The main clients of these flows are China, India, Japan and South Korea, which alone accounted for 69 per cent of crude oil exports via the Strait in 2024. Last Sunday, the Iranian Parliament voted in favour of the closure of this Strait, but Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the only body empowered to decide on this matter, did not validate this plan.