The political crisis simmers after the dissolution of the Assembly of 2024

On the evening of the break-up of his Renaissance party in the European elections (14.6% of the votes against 31.37 % for the National Rally), Emmanuel Macron chose to dissolve the National Assembly. A gesture presented as a « act of democratic clarity », to, according to his words, not « pretend like nothing is ».

But four months later, the presidential manoeuvre plunged the country into an unprecedented political and institutional crisis under the Fifth Republic.

Prior to this surprise dissolution, the presidential camp still had a relative majority: 169 seats for Renaissance, to which were added the allies of MoDem (50 seats) and Horizons (31 seats). Despite weak governance, the coalition managed to move forward, often using Article 49.3, used 23 times under the government of Elizabeth Borne.

The early parliamentary elections of 7 July 2024 upset the situation: No camp won an absolute majority. The political landscape has now become fragmented into three irreconcilable blocks: left, centre and extreme right, making any stable coalition almost impossible.

As a result, France is at a standstill.

Since then, no fewer than four prime ministers have succeeded each other: Élisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal, Michel Barnier, and François Bayrou.
The latest, Sébastien Lecornu, presented his government on 5 October, before resigning less than a month later. A resignation immediately accepted by Emmanuel Macron.

This chronic instability illustrates the current political impasse. It falls at the worst moment: Budget 2026 must be voted in the coming weeks.

Markets soon reacted. CAC 40 lost 1.36% following the announcement of the government's resignation, a sign of a loss of investor confidence in a situation that has become unreadable. Economists now fear a chain: stagnation of growth, rising interest rates and weakening of French international credit. The euro weakened against the dollar, in a context of increasing volatility.

The political crisis adds to an already fragile economic situation:

• a trade deficit of about EUR 100 billion
• growth limited to 0.7%,
• an unemployment rate of 7,5 %,
• and a new degradation of the French sovereign note, widening the rate differential with Germany.

The clock turns: every week lost complicates a little more the task of the head of state.

In the face of the parliamentary impasse, three options are available to the executive:

1. The 49.3, at the risk of causing a motion of censure and a further fall of the government;
2. Adoption by order, if Parliament does not act within 70 days ;
3. The "provisional twelfths", i.e. the monthly renewal of the previous budget of 1/12, an emergency solution that makes it possible to pay wages, pensions and interest on debt, but blocks any reform.

In the run-up to the municipal elections of 2026, the parties were crumbling. Everyone seeks to preserve their local anchor, making any alliance even more unlikely. As for a new dissolution, it is constitutionally possible but would probably lead (according to the polls) to a status quo that does not allow an exit from crisis.

In other words: except for a coup de théâtre, France is at risk of slowing down for another year, suspended between political paralysis and budgetary urgency.