International trade: new economic flows

Economists agree to ring the bells of globalized merchandise flows: from the regionalisation of globalization to the desynchronization of economies, world trade adapts to the global economy. « slowbalisation » Hey!

What do the numbers say?

According to Euler Hermès, in 2019 world trade would have reached its lower growth rates since 2009 with 1.5%, and 1.7% planned for 2020...

More than 50% of world trade would now be achieved in large geographical regions, compared to 48% in 2010. Production locations are linked to consumer markets (see graph below).

Why the bottom move?

• The Trade policy politicization. For example, the US-China trade war since 2018 has resulted in an average increase in tariffs of 3.5 to 8% (cf. USA/China commercial war: waiting for the de-escalation... or the hallali!) ;
• The relocation of production sites to change « Origin » and avoid the impact of additional import duties (e.g. Transfer of the manufacture of motor vehicles from China to Sweden in order to avoid the 22% customs duty applied on entry into the US ...;
• The duplication of production sites in large economic areas to reduce supply chain size and ensure continuity of supply (e.g. The production lines of world car manufacturers shut down following the Fukushima accident resulting in the closure of spare parts manufacturers);
• Implementation of « mini factories » Multilocal(vs multinational) made possible by the emergence of industry 4.0, artificial intelligence, 3D printing and additive manufacturing;
• The reduction of The carbon and environmental footprint which impacts the cost price of products;
• The requirements « local content » (Ex. The policy of « Make in India » of the Narendra Modi).