BREXIT: from border trade to the big international bath!

Following the referendum of 23 June 2016 in favour of « Brexit » (contract « British Exit »)On 29 March 2017 the United Kingdom submitted a notification of its intention to withdraw from the Union under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, thus launching negotiations from 19 June 2017 (cf. BREXIT: What customs consequences for EU operators?).

The maturity of the preliminary trading period (cf. BREXIT: forecast calendar until 2021), The European Parliament and the Parliament of the United Kingdom must now agree on the basis for starting the operational phase of separation: « Hard Brexit » gold « Soft Brexit » ?

All European traders are looking to the European Commission in anticipation of the conclusion of the first phase of negotiations... And for cause! Under the conditions of exit from the Union from the United Kingdom, the operational and financial consequences could be disastrous for many of them.

What are the negotiations under way?

• The Part one concerns the arrangements for withdrawal from the United Kingdom (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) covering financial matters, the status of residents and the border with the Republic of Ireland. It provides for a white period of 21 months for which trade would always be managed under DEB without a customs declaration.
• The second part to negotiate future agreements between the European Union and the United Kingdom.

What possible scenarios for Brexit?

Two main scenarios are presented according to the deadline for ratification of the withdrawal agreement:

1. If the EU proposal is ratified by 30 March 2019 European Union law will cease to apply to the United Kingdom after 21 months transition period up to 1^and January 2021.
2. Beyond that date, there will be no transition period (« Hard Brexit ») : the United Kingdom will then be considered as a third countries^and April 2019.

The withdrawal agreement of the European Union, which lays down the conditions for separation, was « approved as a whole » by the British Prime Minister, and « intensive negotiations » the political declaration which will accompany it until the British Parliament for ratification.

One exceptional European Council is scheduled Sunday 25/11/2018In order to officially seal the agreement, it will nevertheless be up to Mrs May to have it ratified by the British Parliament ... which is not won in advance! So the risk of a hard Brexit is still high.

And we can add to that the risk of division for Britain since

LScotland Having clearly indicated its will to remain in the European Union by holding a referendum if necessary, Britain is currently facing the risk of bursting which still throws oil on fire.